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Short Investing Beliefs

Expecting crazy > expecting average, because the important part of “reversion to the mean” is the reversion, not the mean.

History > forecasts, because most investing history is how people reacted to forecasts and things that weren’t forecasted.

Luck > risk, because they’re the same thing in opposite directions but luck is harder to identify, making it worthy of more reflection.

Endurance > time horizon, because the amount of time left in the game doesn’t matter if you’re forced out of the game.

Optimism > pessimism because more people wake up every morning aiming to make the world more efficient than wishing to screw things up.

Personal finance > investing, at all income levels, because a good saver who doesn’t invest will be fine but a great investor mired in debt and overspending can be wiped out.

Skeptical > wooed, because big data leads to big cherry-picking.

Simple > complex, because good ideas need so much room for error that they shouldn’t need lots of data to be persuasive.

Guidelines > rules, because the world changes faster than textbooks.

Reasonable > rational, because you’re a human, not a machine.

Cash flow > reported earnings, because accountants can be science fiction writers masquerading as statisticians.

Culture > strategy, because the former catches up with the latter.

Accepting risk > outsmarting risk, because risk is a genius and a devil.

Conversating > solitude, because there are more lessons to learn vicariously than there are books and blog posts.

Exploring > siloed, because insight doesn’t care what industry or style you specialize in.

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