This is a short story about what happened to the U.S. economy since the end of World War II.

The demand for forecasts grows after a surprise. It’s quite an irony. Surprises make you feel like you’re not in control, which is when it feels best to grab the wheel with both hands, listening to those who tell you what happens next despite being blindsided by what just happened.

There are two kinds of history to learn from.

This is a story about when big innovations happen.

An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but have no idea where it began.

The most important lessons from history are the takeaways that are so broad they can apply to other fields, other eras, and other people. That’s where lessons have leverage and are most likely to apply to your own life.

Richard Held and Alan Hein raised 20 kittens in pitch black darkness. Which is the kind of thing you should only do if it’s necessary to prove a point critical to understanding how the world works. Thankfully they did just that.

Greed and fear control everything in investing.

Let me tell you the story of two investors, neither of whom knew each other, but whose paths crossed in an interesting way.

Capitalism’s success is built on a belief – a story – that, given the right incentives, people can work together to solve problems. It’s worked magnificently. It’s the greatest story ever told.