Trying Too Hard

Thomas McCrae was a young 19th Century doctor still unsure of his skills. One day he diagnosed a patient with a common, insignificant stomach ailment. McCrae’s medical school professor watched the diagnosis and interrupted with every student’s nightmare: In fact, the patient had a rare and serious disease. McCrae had never heard of it.

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The Rise After the Fall

Two weeks ago, I was scheduled to attend an annual meeting in Chicago. I caught an early morning flight into O’Hare and arrived at my hotel on Michigan Avenue shortly before noon. Knowing I had a few hours to kill before my first meeting, I decided to walk around the city to see how much it had (or had not) emerged from the Covid-19 lockdowns.

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A Few Beliefs

Having your views confirmed is a powerful and addictive drug.

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The Rich And The Wealthy

Reggie Vanderbilt was born into a family of bitter feuds, fragile egos, and impossible expectations. Everything went downhill from there.

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Never Saw It Coming

People are very good at forecasting the future, except for the surprises, which tend to be all that matter.

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Staying Put

A lot of good ideas are ignored because they’re only occasionally useful. No one wants to bring them up because there are so many counterexamples of times they were wrong.

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Deep Roots

Forecasting is hard because it’s easy to skip the question, “And then what?”

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How People Think

One hundred billion people have walked this planet.

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Safer, Yet More Afraid Than Ever

We were so close.

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A Ukrainian Abroad

I was born in the beautiful historic city of Lviv, Ukraine about six months after the fall of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s independence.

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