The end of a speculative boom can be inevitable but not predictable. Unsustainable things can last a long time. Identifying something that can’t go on forever doesn’t mean that thing can’t keep going for years. Years and years and years.
In Part I, we covered why we believe there has never been a better time to start a company addressing the climate crisis. A core part of our hypothesis is: as climate technology expands to cover the entire economy (rather than just the energy sector), there is nearly unlimited upside.
Some good ones I’ve read lately:
A truth that applies to many fields, which can frustrate some as much as it energizes others, is that the person who tells the most compelling story wins. Not who has the best idea, or the right answer. Just whoever tells a story that catches people’s attention and gets them to nod their heads.
Napoleon’s definition of a military genius was “The man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.”
I want to try to explain why Gamestop went up 100-fold in the last year and why Sears never recovered. They have to do with the same force in opposite directions. It’s a force that can explain a lot of baffling trends lately, and it’s so easy to underestimate and overlook.
Technology enables the most talented individuals to be able to scale and distribute their gifts to the millions who want them. Spotify for musicians, Etsy for artisans, Gumroad for creators, Outschool for teachers, and so forth. The world is better thanks to the ability of these marketplaces and tools to promote a more free market – one in which the best of the best are discovered and directly rewarded by millions of supporters for their one-of-a-kind gifts.
It can happen to you. Job loss, divorce, a string of disastrous investments, succumbing to your emotional flaws, being a victim of fraud, getting hit by a risk you didn’t see coming – to people in good financial shape these tend to be viewed as things that happen “to other people.” But they can happen to you. And given enough time, at least one likely will. Some are more susceptible than others, but no one is exempt from being humbled.
You have five seconds to get people’s attention. Books, blogs, emails, reports, it doesn’t matter – if you don’t sell them in five seconds you’ve exhausted most of their patience.
The decarbonization of our energy sector is inevitable. But the quickest path to this zero-carbon future isn’t obvious.